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Who Made The Most Of The NBA Restart?



The NBA playoffs finally started in earnest on Monday, though most of the league has been in a Disney World bubble since July for the season restart (which included eight games for every team, plus a play-in contest for the Portland Trail Blazers and Memphis Grizzlies). And what did we learn from that sample of games? For players on each team in the bubble, we crunched the numbers in RAPTOR — our new(ish) NBA metric — to see who played the best in the “regular season” portion of the restart, who exceeded his pre-break performance the most … and who underwhelmed his pre-bubble expectations.

Overall, the best player of the restart was not unanimous seeding-games MVP Damian Lillard of Portland, though he was close. According to RAPTOR, James Harden of the Houston Rockets generated slightly more WAR in the bubble — edging out Dame 2.8 to 2.4 — followed by Devin Booker of the Phoenix Suns (who went a perfect 8-0):

RAPTOR ratings
Player Team Offense Defense Total WAR
James Harden HOU +15.0 +4.4 +19.4 2.78
Damian Lillard POR 13.8 -2.6 11.2 2.42
Devin Booker PHO 9.8 0.1 9.9 1.76
Kawhi Leonard LAC 11.0 2.4 13.4 1.65
Paul George LAC 6.9 6.5 13.3 1.62
Nikola Vučević ORL 4.2 4.1 8.3 1.33
Nemanja Bjelica SAC 2.8 7.5 10.3 1.28
Derrick White SAS 3.5 5.3 8.8 1.25
Luka Dončić DAL 6.7 0.1 6.8 1.22
Gary Trent Jr. POR 6.4 -0.6 5.8 1.19
Bogdan Bogdanović SAC 6.1 0.0 6.0 1.17
Chris Paul OKC 4.5 3.8 8.3 1.16
Thomas Bryant WAS 3.2 3.2 6.4 1.11
Nikola Jokić DEN 7.1 -0.6 6.5 1.11
Cameron Payne PHO 4.2 4.6 8.9 1.08

Stats from July 30 through Aug. 14.

Source: NBA Advanced Stats

Booker’s restart performance was a great story, even if his season technically ended without a postseason appearance. But what about the rest of the players who did actually move on to the playoffs? Let’s run down the highlights and lowlights of the restart for each team, beginning with those at the top of our predicted odds for the championship:

Los Angeles Clippers

Restart record: 5-3
Elo change:1 +13 (6th)
Best restart player (by RAPTOR wins above replacement): SF Kawhi Leonard (1.65 WAR)

This was a close race between Leonard and Paul George, who put up 1.62 WAR in the restart. But Kawhi earned the edge with his performance on offense, where we estimate he’s adding 11.0 more points per 100 possessions than an average player. Compared with his regular-season numbers from before the restart, Leonard improved his true shooting percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio in the seeding games, and the Clippers scored a ridiculous 127.0 points per 100 with him on the court — 24.7 points per 100 better than their offensive rating without him.

Most impressive player:2 SF Paul George (+7.3 change in RAPTOR during restart)

George was already a top player before the NBA season shut down, accumulating 5.5 WAR (21st-most in the league) with a +6.0 RAPTOR during the pre-coronavirus section of the 2019-20 season. But he has stepped his game up significantly during the restart, with a +13.3 rating since play resumed. Of particular note has been George’s improved defensive RAPTOR, which rose from a +1.8 (good but not great) to a +6.5 (seventh-best in the league), a number much more in keeping with George’s reputation as an elite stopper earlier in his career.

Most disappointing player: SG Landry Shamet (-3.5 change in RAPTOR)

RAPTOR doesn’t usually think too highly of Shamet, whom it has considered a subpar player in the past couple of regular seasons. But Shamet’s rating usually consists of a decent offensive contribution — fueled by good 3-point shooting — and a below-average defensive grade. In the restart, Shamet has kept the latter (his defensive RAPTOR is -0.3), but his offense has fallen to -4.9 points per 100, a dip of 5.3 points from his pre-break average. After making just 21 percent of his threes during the seeding games, Shamet needs to rediscover his touch in order to help the Clippers reach their championship potential.

Milwaukee Bucks

Restart record: 3-5
Elo change: -44 (15th)
Best restart player: PF Giannis Antetokounmpo (1.08 WAR)

In terms of WAR, Giannis essentially tied with teammate Brook Lopez for the team lead during the restart. Antetokounmpo did it while taking things relatively easy, logging just 25.7 minutes per game (versus the 30.9 he averaged before the pause),3 and the Bucks themselves did not have an overly impressive seeding round, winning just three of eight contests. But on a per-possession basis, Giannis continued to dominate; his rating of +10.8 since the restart was higher than his +9.2 rating from before, part of a very likely MVP season. Even if Milwaukee was guilty of treating the seeding games like a tune-up, Giannis’s game was still firing on all cylinders.

Most impressive player: C Brook Lopez (+6.3 change in RAPTOR)

Before the season was put on hold, RAPTOR thought Lopez’s primary value to the Bucks lay in his defense, where he rated 3.9 points per 100 better than an average player. Offensively, his rating had slipped some because he was less valuable as a floor spacer, shooting under 30 percent from downtown. Since the restart, though, Lopez remained a stellar defender (+4.4 RAPTOR), and he was markedly better on offense (+3.7), making nearly 40 percent of his threes and averaging over 20 points per game. Although Lopez struggled in Game 1 of the Bucks’ playoff series against Orlando Tuesday, Milwaukee is hoping he can maintain his restart form — or even reprise his performance from last year’s postseason, when Lopez’s playoff RAPTOR was 6.2 points per 100 better than his regular-season rating.

Most disappointing player: SG Donte DiVincenzo (-8.4 change in RAPTOR)

Looking beyond better-known players such as Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, DiVincenzo had been one of the best-kept secrets behind Milwaukee’s dominating regular season. With a RAPTOR of +4.5, including a +3.0 on defense, the second-year guard out of Villanova was excelling at both ends of the court. But he has struggled at both ends during the restart, as his RAPTOR has fallen to -4.0 with poor shooting and a sky-high turnover rate. That dropoff in overall RAPTOR (a whopping 8.4 points per 100) was the third-worst of any qualified player during the seeding games.

Los Angeles Lakers

Restart record: 3-5
Elo change: -67 (16th)
Best restart player: PF Anthony Davis (0.85 WAR)

The Lakers had an incredibly uninspired restart upon arriving in the bubble, and that even shows up with their best player from these games. LeBron James, who had a strong case for MVP when play ceased in March, was just L.A.’s fourth-best player (with 0.38 WAR) during the seeding round, with a RAPTOR 7.1 points per 100 below his previous regular-season norm — and somehow he wasn’t even the most disappointing Laker (see below). For his part, Davis outplayed LeBron but also produced a RAPTOR 2.0 points below his rating from before the break, with a marked decline on offense.

Most impressive player: PF Kyle Kuzma (+7.9 change in RAPTOR)

Only one Laker who played at least 120 minutes in the bubble actually improved on his RAPTOR from before the pause — and that was Kuzma, who has gotten significantly better at both ends of the floor in Orlando, particularly on offense. Kuzma shot much more efficiently (improving his true shooting to 59.3 percent after knocking down 44 percent of his threes) and was far more careful with the ball (improving his assist-to-turnover ratio from 0.81 to 1.83). James and Davis will most likely be just fine in the playoffs, but it was encouraging for the Lakers to see Kuzma potentially take a long-awaited step forward when L.A. needs it most.

Most disappointing player: SG Danny Green (-7.7 change in RAPTOR)

Somehow, Green undershot expectations even more than James did during this mostly listless return to play. Green was having an incredibly effective season (+3.4 RAPTOR) as a 3-and-D wing before the break, knocking down 38 percent of his shots from deep and contributing a +2.6 rating on defense per 100 possessions. In the seeding games, however, Green was merely an average defender (0.0 RAPTOR) and made only 25 percent of his threes, to go with a terrible assist-to-turnover ratio (0.56) and a dreadful -4.2 offensive RAPTOR overall. L.A. needs better from Green in a crucial support role around James and Davis.

Teams in the next group all have at least a 1 percent chance to win the title — but all are also clearly in a lower tier than the top three. So we’ll quickly break down their best and worst performers of the restart thus far:

Boston Celtics

Restart record: 5-3
Elo change: +19 (4th)

Boston’s best player in the restart was SF Jaylen Brown (0.95 WAR), who built on his strong pre-break numbers with a much-improved defensive RAPTOR — going from -0.5 to +2.5 — since play resumed. But the most impressive Celtic has been PG Brad Wanamaker, owner of a +7.2 RAPTOR during the restart … 9.3 points per 100 better than his pre-restart number. At the other end of the spectrum, PF Semi Ojeleye was Boston’s most disappointing player in the bubble, with a RAPTOR 5.5 points per 100 lower than before the break — including a dip of 5.6 points per 100 on defense for a player whose calling card has been his defense.

Houston Rockets

Restart record: 4-4
Elo change: -21 (10th)

As we mentioned earlier, SG James Harden was RAPTOR’s most valuable player of the restart (2.78 WAR). He was also Houston’s most improved player in the bubble, elevating his rating by 9.9 points per 100. What makes that extra ridiculous is that Harden already had the highest RAPTOR of any qualified NBA player beforehand. So the most dangerous player in the league went out and doubled his rating in the most recent sample of games — ones that saw Harden average over 34 points per game with a 73 percent true shooting percentage and an assist on nearly 47 percent of teammate baskets, to go with solid defensive tracking numbers. As for Houston’s most disappointing player? That would be SG Austin Rivers, whose RAPTOR dropped by 4.4 points per 100, from a passable -1.3 to a -5.7 (nearly equally bad on offense and defense).

Toronto Raptors

Restart record: 7-1
Elo change: +24 (3rd)

The defending champs were one of the most impressive teams of the seeding round, and a lot of that had to do with SF OG Anunoby. Anunoby was both Toronto’s best player (0.87 WAR) and its most improved one, elevating his RAPTOR from a respectable +0.5 through March to a strong +7.1 during the restart (including a +6.9 mark on defense). Along with Marc Gasol, Pascal Siakam and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Anunoby spearheads a deep defense that finished the regular season ranked second in efficiency. One of the only concerns for Toronto might involve rookie SG Terence Davis, whose RAPTOR dropped by a team-worst 8.7 points per 100 during the restart, thanks to a variety of statistical indicators that were significantly worse across the board.

Denver Nuggets

Restart record: 3-5
Elo change: -28 (12th)

With everyone waiting to see how C Nikola Jokić would play after slimming down and fighting off the coronavirus, the multitalented 7-footer didn’t disappoint. Jokić led the Nuggets during the seeding games with 1.11 WAR, improving his seasonlong RAPTOR to more closely match his output from a season ago (when he finished fourth in MVP voting). Denver’s most impressive breakout came from rookie PF Michael Porter Jr., who was merely average (+0.2 RAPTOR) before the pause but improved to a +4.1 RAPTOR during the restart. Meanwhile, PG Monte Morris continued to slide in his second year as a regular. After already dipping from a +2.8 RAPTOR last season to a -0.8 rating through March, he registered a -5.4 RAPTOR in the bubble, fueled by a miserable -6.4 rating on defense.

Philadelphia 76ers

Restart record: 4-4
Elo change: +12 (7th)

With Ben Simmons suffering a season-ending knee injury, the bubble has already been unkind to the Sixers. But his absence has meant an expanded role for SG Alec Burks, who led Philly with 0.80 WAR during the restart, edging out PF Tobias Harris (0.72). Burks was Philadelphia’s most impressive performer as well, erupting for a RAPTOR of +8.3 in the bubble after sitting at -0.4 at the break (and doing little of note in 11 games after arriving via trade with the Warriors in early February). Burks has a scorching +8.6 RAPTOR on offense alone, thanks to a 135.8 individual offensive rating during the seeding games. In reality, the most disappointing Sixer is probably Simmons, since his injury all but ruins whatever chance Philly had at the title — but statistically, SG Shake Milton had the roughest restart, with a RAPTOR 6.4 points per 100 below his regular-season level heading into the bubble.

The rest of the playoff field all boasts less than a 1 percent chance of winning the championship, but we can summarize their best, most surprising and most underwhelming players of the restart thusly:

Dallas Mavericks

Best player: PG Luka Dončić (1.22 WAR)
Most impressive: PF Dorian Finney-Smith (+3.8 change in RAPTOR)
Most disappointing: SG Seth Curry (-7.0 change in RAPTOR)

Miami Heat

Best player: PG Goran Dragić (0.87 WAR)
Most impressive: Dragić (+10.5 change in RAPTOR)
Most disappointing: PF Bam Adebayo (+0.4 change in RAPTOR)4

Utah Jazz

Best player: C Rudy Gobert (0.82 WAR)
Most impressive: PG Mike Conley (+3.6 change in RAPTOR)
Most disappointing: C Tony Bradley (-6.1 change in RAPTOR)

Indiana Pacers

Best player: SF T.J. Warren (1.06 WAR)
Most impressive: PG T.J. McConnell (+11.6 change in RAPTOR)
Most disappointing: PF Doug McDermott (-8.1 change in RAPTOR)

Oklahoma City Thunder

Best player: PG Chris Paul (1.16 WAR)
Most impressive: SF Hamidou Diallo (+6.8 change in RAPTOR)
Most disappointing: SG Luguentz Dort (-0.9 change in RAPTOR)

Portland Trail Blazers

Best player: PG Damian Lillard (2.42 WAR)
Most impressive: SG Gary Trent Jr. (+7.0 change in RAPTOR)5
Most disappointing: SG CJ McCollum (-6.1 change in RAPTOR)6

Orlando Magic

Best player: C Nikola Vučević (1.33 WAR)
Most impressive: SG Evan Fournier (+7.7 change in RAPTOR)
Most disappointing: SF Wes Iwundu (-3.6 change in RAPTOR)

Brooklyn Nets

Best player: SG Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (0.73 WAR)
Most impressive: SG Tyler Johnson (+6.5 change in RAPTOR)
Most disappointing: SF Joe Harris (-3.8 change in RAPTOR)

Check out our latest NBA predictions.

Source : FiveThirthyEightRead More

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Toronto FC hoping to make MLS Cup run having spent much of 2020 far from home



On a recent Thursday in Hartford, Conn., Toronto FC goalkeeper Quentin Westberg pondered the dichotomy of wanting to reach MLS Cup on Dec. 12, but also desiring to see his family again. Meanwhile, Jim Liston, the team’s director of sports science, was planning a trip to Lowe’s to buy 15 garbage cans so players could have an ice bath after training. As for manager Greg Vanney, he was fretting about his team’s health and the lack of practice time their schedule was affording.

Such is the life of a team as it attempts to not only navigate its way through the COVID-19 pandemic, but has been forced to do it away from home.

Due to travel restrictions between the U.S. and Canada, TFC — like the league’s other two Canadian teams, Montreal Impact and Vancouver Whitecaps — set up a “home” base in the U.S. for the remainder of the season; Toronto were stationed in Hartford. (Vancouver Whitecaps took roost in Portland, ground-sharing with Timbers, while Montreal Impact split use of New York Red Bulls’ facilities in Harrison, N.J.) This was on top of nearly every team spending nearly a month inside a bubble back in July at the MLS is Back Tournament outside Orlando, Florida.

The Reds spent about seven weeks back in Toronto as they played a series of matches against Canadian teams. In mid-September, the remainder of the regular season — and the temporary move to Hartford — beckoned. The vagabond nature of the campaign is what led Liston to joke that he was willing to discuss “whatever five seasons” the team has been through so far. But for Vanney and the players, the campaign has required a special kind of focus.

“A lot of what we’ve done here, and what we try to preach here is just control the controllables, and don’t get too drawn into the things you can’t,” Vanney told ESPN. “Roll with it, and make the best out of whatever the situation is.”

Stream FC Daily on ESPN+
– 2020 MLS Playoffs: Who’s in, schedule and more
– MLS on ESPN+: Stream LIVE games and replays (U.S. only)

Toronto has largely succeeded in spite of its odyssey. While there was disappointment at missing out on the Supporters’ Shield to the Philadelphia Union, TFC went 7-3-2 during its Hartford sojourn and finished with the second-best record in the league. But the challenges have still been immense. Simply being out of one’s home environment is difficult enough, but the time spent away from family and loved ones weighs heavy on the psyche, even as Vanney has given players the occasional trip back to Toronto — under quarantine — to reconnect with loved ones.

“It’s just very different, very challenging and emotionally exhausting,” Westberg said of his experience while based in Hartford.

Westberg has arguably had it tougher than most. The TFC goalkeeper is married with four children, including a baby girl who was born in June. For that reason, Westberg and his wife, Ania, made the decision at the end of September that it would be better for her and their kids to head back to his native France so they could be surrounded by family. Westberg called it “the least bad decision,” but there are difficulties nonetheless.

“I’m a very even person, and this year has challenged me a lot,” he said. “I’m still pretty even, but I keep a lot to myself and for sure there’s some difficult days, seeing your family [struggle] from your absence.”

The inability to be home has affected the players and staff in other ways. In Toronto, there are ways of disengaging from the game. Being with friends, loved ones or even in familiar surroundings can be the best medicine in terms of forgetting a bad game or training session. But in Hartford, at the team’s hotel, that escape is nearly impossible even as players try to distract themselves by reading or taking online classes.

“You don’t really unplug,” Westberg said. “You FaceTime family, or this or that, but it’s too short. You’re 100 percent focused on your soccer, and your whole day basically relies on being ready for whatever soccer activity that you have next, whether it’s practice or game. It’s good for your physique, it’s optimal for the way you eat and the way you [train]. But mentally, you’re not as fresh as your body.”

That isn’t to say there are only negatives to the separation. There is also an us-against-the-world mentality that Toronto has adopted, given that their players and personnel are experiencing the season in a way that is vastly different than most other teams. The team staff has done what it can to make their surroundings a home away from home, whether it’s personalizing the locker rooms at Rentschler Field or having hotel staff brand the surroundings in TFC colors. The hotel went so far as to bring in a barista who could consistently give the players their coffee fix. Supporters groups have even sent down banners in a bid to convey the fact that the players are remembered.

The care that TFC takes for players has extended to families back home, with the club supplying meals to loved ones three times a week.

On the logistical side, Liston made sure that one of the gyms used at MLS is Back was brought to TFC’s hotel in Hartford, and he remarked that the food at the hotel is “arguably the best we’ve ever had on the road.”

There have also been efforts to create new routines. Assistant coach Jason Bent, aka DJ Soops, has been in charge of the pregame music selection for the past 18 months — no easy feat for a squad that has a considerable international presence. In Hartford, Bent has set aside Thursday nights to spin music in one area of the hotel. He’ll even go live on Instagram or Twitch for those who prefer to relax in their rooms.

“[We] opened it to players and staff and basically anyone that’s part of our bubble to come relax, listen to music and just enjoy each other’s company,” Bent said. “I enjoy making people happy so if it’s helping everyone even in the slightest, I have no problem arranging the set and spinning.”

For Vanney, the pandemic and operating outside of the team’s home market has meant any number of challenges. He said the team has used three different training facilities in Hartford, with varying field conditions. He recognizes that the trips home are vital for the mental health of his players and staff, but any breaks also mean less time spent on the practice field. The compressed schedule, which at times involved games every three or four days, has had an impact as well. Even the best-laid plans in terms of squad rotation were impacted as minor injuries began popping up.

“We end up with a lot of guys in different positions because they need special kinds of treatment or care to help them get fit and back to health,” Vanney said. “So it ends up being a lot of different things kind of going on all at once, and that’s been the challenge of it.”

Recovery from matches has been complicated by the fact that TFC doesn’t have access to the same level of facilities that it does at home — hence Liston’s emergency trip to Lowe’s to fashion impromptu ice baths for the players. Then there are the different ways the players occupy themselves on the road as compared to home, especially amid the pandemic.

“There’s really no life outside of the hotel,” Liston said. “[At home], you may go walk the dog in the afternoon or go for a walk with your wife or friend or girlfriend or family and you’re out and about. The recommendation [here] is to kind of stay put. So you’ve got a really active population and pro athletes, who we’re asking them to be sedentary the rest of the time, kind of stay in the hotel from a COVID and safety standpoint. That’s not optimal for recovery either.”

There are also the creature comforts of home that are no longer available on the road, which can impact sleep.

“Sleep is the number one tool for recovery, and that’s definitely been a challenge,” Liston said. “We do well-being questionnaires and the scores on quality of sleep, and hours of sleep, just drop.”



Tom Barlow and Brian White seal Toronto’s fate in a 2-1 win for New York Red Bulls. Watch MLS on ESPN+.

Another change has been same-day travel, which has drawn mixed reactions from the TFC players and staff. Vanney and Westberg are generally in favor, saying it reminds them of when they each played in France. Flying back the same night also means a training day isn’t lost. Liston has a different perspective in that he prefers arriving the day before, and then leaving the same day.

“I think [same-day travel] makes for a really long day,” he said. “And there’s definitely a negative impact on performance, taking three bus rides and a plane ride before your game. You’re getting home — it can be 12:30, but it could also be 1:30 in the morning, and that’s where you know our well-being scores and sleep hours and quality just disappear. When you have so many games in succession, you can’t make up the sleep.”

With the playoffs set to begin for TFC on Nov. 24, the end is in sight, even as it makes for a complex — and even conflicting — set of emotions.

“This is the tricky part. I miss them a lot,” Westberg said of his family. “But in a way I want to see them as [late] as possible in December, because obviously, there’s this idea that we want to do well in the playoffs and we want to keep going. TFC has a history of setting high standards and high expectations. It’s a heavy load to carry but also an exciting one.”

Win or lose, it’s a season they’ll never forget.


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Bettman: NHL is mulling temporary realignment



The NHL is considering a temporary realignment of its teams for the 2020-21 season due to COVID-19 travel restrictions, according to commissioner Gary Bettman.

Bettman said Tuesday that restrictions on travel across the Canadian border, as well as “limitations in terms of quarantining when you go from certain states to other states” within the United States, could mean the NHL creates a more regionalized alignment for its upcoming season.

“As it relates to the travel issue, which is obviously the great unknown, we may have to temporarily realign to deal with geography, because having some of our teams travel from Florida to California may not make sense. It may be that we’re better off — particularly if we’re playing a reduced schedule, which we’re contemplating — keeping it geographically centric and more divisional-based; and realigning, again on a temporary basis, to deal with the travel issues,” Bettman said during a 2020 Paley International Council Summit panel with fellow commissioners Adam Silver of the NBA and Rob Manfred of MLB.

The NHL board of governors has a meeting scheduled for Thursday which will provide a progress report and possible recommendations for a season format, based on talks between the league and the NHL Players’ Association. The target date for starting next season remains Jan. 1.

Bettman said the league is considering a few scheduling options for the 2020-21 season. Something that’s off the table: playing the entire season in the kind of bubbles the NHL had in Toronto and Edmonton, Alberta, to complete last season. But Bettman said teams opening in their own arenas is a possibility, along with a modified bubble.

“We are exploring the possibility of playing in our own buildings without fans [or] fans where you can, which is going to be an arena-by-arena issue. But we’re also exploring the possibility of a hub. You’ll come in. You’ll play for 10 to 12 days. You’ll play a bunch of games without traveling. You’ll go back, go home for a week, be with your family. We’ll have our testing protocols and all the other things you need,” he said.

Bettman also indicated that the NHL is exploring “a hybrid, where some teams are in a bubble, some teams play at home and you move in and out.”

The NBA’s board of governors unanimously approved a deal with the players’ union that sets the stage for a season that will open on Dec. 22 and with a reduced schedule of 72 games. Silver said that the commissioners are in communication on COVID-19-related issues, especially the NBA and the NHL, since the two leagues’ teams share arenas and, in some cases, team owners.

Silver said he senses that the NBA will have fans in many of its buildings this season.

“We’re probably going to start one way, where we’re maybe a little bit more conservative than many of the jurisdictions allow,” he said. “What we’ve said to our teams is that we’ll continue to work with public health authorities. Arena issues are different than outdoor stadium issues. There will be certain standards for air filtration and air circulation. There may be a different standard for a suite than there will be for fans spaced in seats.”

Silver said there will be standardized protocols that are consistent from arena to arena, such as proximity between players and fans: “In certain cases, for seats near the floor, we’re going to be putting in testing programs, where fans will certify that they’ve been tested — some within 48 hours, some within day of game.” While Silver supported a continued expansion of the NBA postseason through its play-in tournament, Bettman said that he’s not in favor of expanded playoffs or “playing with the fundamentals of the game.” The NHL had 24 teams in its postseason last summer.


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The Battleground States Where We’ve Seen Some Movement In The Polls



With apologies to The Raconteurs, the presidential race continues to be “steady as she goes,” with little sign of tightening despite a plethora of new polls. FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast gives Joe Biden an 89 in 100 shot at winning the election, while President Trump has just an 11 in 100 chance. This makes Biden the favorite, but still leaves open a narrow path to victory for Trump, for whom a reelection win would be surprising — but not utterly shocking.

At the same time, we also have fewer polls from live-caller surveys, which have historically been more accurate and have shown slightly better numbers for Biden, than polls that use other methodologies, such as polls conducted primarily online or through automated telephone calls. Nevertheless, while the overall picture has shifted only a little in recent days, a few battleground states have seen at least some movement in their polls, which has slightly altered the odds Biden or Trump wins in each of those places.

What election stories need to get more coverage | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast


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