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Real or not: Covington gets title shot with win

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If Colby Covington is able to get by Tyron Woodley in Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main event, he’ll be calling for another shot at the welterweight title. But would he deserve it?

Kamaru Usman defended his title by stopping Covington — who argued the fight shouldn’t have been stopped — in the fifth round of their Dec. 14 bout. UFC president Dana White was impressed by the challenger, but he’ll have other names to consider, including Leon Edwards and the winner of the proposed Nate DiazJorge Masvidal rematch. The UFC ranks Covington as the No. 2 challenger behind Gilbert Burns, who fights Usman later this year, so Covington definitely would be in the conversation.

But Woodley can end that discussion with a win, which would snap a two-fight losing streak. And he has gotten some help in recent weeks from a person very familiar with his opponent. Masvidal, who once trained and lived with Covington, helped Woodley train for Saturday’s fight. Will that be a factor?

The co-main event shouldn’t lack fireworks, with Donald Cerrone facing Niko Price. Both men are aggressive strikers and are looking to return to the win column, especially Cerrone, who has lost four straight. Cerrone is 37 with a ton of mileage on his body, and he’s admitted retirement doesn’t seem as far away as it used to. How will Saturday’s fight impact that?

Khamzat Chimaev, on the other hand, is just getting started. He made history in July by winning twice in the Octagon in an 11-day span. Those were the 26-year-old’s first two UFC fights, and he dominated in both of them. So impressive was Chimaev that White not only booked him for Saturday against Gerald Meerschaert but again in November against Demian Maia.

Talk about fast track. But will that lead to a title shot for Chimaev in the near future?

ESPN’s MMA experts Ariel Helwani, Brett Okamoto, Marc Raimondi and Jeff Wagenheim take a look at these topics and address what’s real or not.

Real or not: If Colby Covington wins, he’ll get another title shot next

Helwani: It depends, but I think it’s unlikely.

So, let’s go in order here: Let’s say Covington defeats Woodley. In order to be in consideration, Covington has to beat Woodley impressively and probably finish him.

OK, let’s say he does that. Then let’s say Kamaru Usman beats Gilbert Burns. I’d say that will significantly decrease the chances of Covington getting the next title shot. I just don’t think there is a market for a rematch so soon. So, that would be that.

But let’s say Burns wins. Would Usman get an immediate rematch? Unless it’s a controversial loss, I’d say no.

But then there’s the Jorge Masvidal-Nathan Diaz winner, and/or Leon Edwards, and who knows who else emerges between now and then. Would Covington get a shot over those guys? I have a hard time envisioning that happening.

Obviously, crazier things have and could happen (injuries, timelines, contract negotiations, etc.), but my general feeling is regardless of how he wins, if he wins, Covington would have to win at least one more fight to get another title shot.

Real or not: Training with Jorge Masvidal will give Tyron Woodley an edge

Raimondi: Absolutely real. Now, that’s not to say that it means Woodley should be favored over Covington, or anything like that. But yes, Woodley training with Masvidal — who was Covington’s best friend and chief training partner for years — will absolutely help Woodley on Saturday.

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Tyron Woodley discusses training with Jorge Masvidal again and how Masvidal motivated him to clear up “toxic” things in his life.

Woodley and Covington have trained together before, but that was years ago — before Covington was even in the UFC. Any knowledge gained then likely won’t come into play much six years later. But Masvidal? He was training with Covington regularly up until 2018. That isn’t too long ago. It’s fair to say Masvidal knows Covington about as well as anyone. They lived together. There are likely things Masvidal knows about Covington (and vice versa) that no one else does. If the opportunity were there for Woodley to pick Masvidal’s brain, of course he had to take it. And it should give Woodley an extra something that maybe he didn’t have coming into the fight initially.

I did speak with Covington last week about Masvidal going to St. Louis to be part of Woodley’s camp. Covington brushed it off, saying the only thing Masvidal could teach Woodley was how to lose to Covington — because that’s all Masvidal ever did in practice, Covington said. Even if that were true, Masvidal has the chance to give Woodley at least some kind of intel he would not have normally had.

In a matchup of two of the best welterweights in the world, with Woodley, the former UFC champ, trying to snap a two-fight losing streak, every little bit helps. It would be hard to argue that having Masvidal as a sounding board at the gym wouldn’t help Woodley in some way. It’s definitely an edge that Woodley would not have had otherwise.

Real or not: 2021 will be Donald Cerrone’s last year fighting in the UFC

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Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone lands a clean kick to the head of Anthony “Showtime” Pettis in the third round.

Okamoto: I’m going with “not real” on this one … but we might cut it close. I do think if it’s not 2021, the final time we see Cerrone is 2022. He admitted to me, in an interview earlier this year, that he can see “the end of the tunnel” and that he probably has only a “couple years [left], and that’s pushing it.” Well, what’s one thing we know about Cowboy Cerrone? He’s a guy who’s gonna push it. He’s going to push that line. He will, most likely, stick around longer than many think he should. That’s how he has operated his entire career. He has taken the quick turnaround fights, even when his management told him perhaps he should sit and wait for a better fight. That’s Cowboy. That’s why fans love him. He’s lost four in a row, but if you look at it, he’s lost to Tony Ferguson, Justin Gaethje, Conor McGregor and Anthony Pettis. Not like he’s getting walked over by lesser talent. And a lot of people thought he won his last fight against Pettis. Bottom line, I think Cowboy will fight beyond 2021, but not by much.

Real or not: Khamzat Chimaev will have fought for the belt or have a title shot booked by this time next year

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Khamzat Chimaev’s TKO victory over Rhys McKee marks his second win in two different weight classes in the span of 11 days.

Wagenheim: Whoa, hold your horses. The man has been in the UFC for all of two months. Yeah, this coming weekend Chimaev will make his third appearance inside the Octagon, so at his swift pace he might have a dozen UFC fights under his belt by this time next year. And it wouldn’t take him that many victories to land a title shot, especially with the Chechnya-born Swede quickly having established himself as a Dana White favorite. That matters. The UFC president will feed Chimaev a big opportunity the first chance he gets.

But Chimaev has a ways to go before he’ll be staring across the cage at 170-pound king Kamaru Usman. His opponent for next Saturday, Gerald Meerschaert, is a step up in competition, despite having lost four of his past six fights. And if Chimaev passes that test, he’ll really step up next time. White has already let it be known that if Chimaev wins next weekend, he would be booked against jiu-jitsu master Demian Maia. Good luck with that, Khamzat. The UFC clearly has plans for Chimaev, but the promotion had plans for Edmen Shahbazyan and Sean O’Malley, too, and both hit dose-of-reality roadblocks in their most recent fights. So I’m not projecting a title shot for Chimaev until I see him defeat someone who resides somewhere in the high-altitude land of contenders.

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Toronto FC hoping to make MLS Cup run having spent much of 2020 far from home

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On a recent Thursday in Hartford, Conn., Toronto FC goalkeeper Quentin Westberg pondered the dichotomy of wanting to reach MLS Cup on Dec. 12, but also desiring to see his family again. Meanwhile, Jim Liston, the team’s director of sports science, was planning a trip to Lowe’s to buy 15 garbage cans so players could have an ice bath after training. As for manager Greg Vanney, he was fretting about his team’s health and the lack of practice time their schedule was affording.

Such is the life of a team as it attempts to not only navigate its way through the COVID-19 pandemic, but has been forced to do it away from home.

Due to travel restrictions between the U.S. and Canada, TFC — like the league’s other two Canadian teams, Montreal Impact and Vancouver Whitecaps — set up a “home” base in the U.S. for the remainder of the season; Toronto were stationed in Hartford. (Vancouver Whitecaps took roost in Portland, ground-sharing with Timbers, while Montreal Impact split use of New York Red Bulls’ facilities in Harrison, N.J.) This was on top of nearly every team spending nearly a month inside a bubble back in July at the MLS is Back Tournament outside Orlando, Florida.

The Reds spent about seven weeks back in Toronto as they played a series of matches against Canadian teams. In mid-September, the remainder of the regular season — and the temporary move to Hartford — beckoned. The vagabond nature of the campaign is what led Liston to joke that he was willing to discuss “whatever five seasons” the team has been through so far. But for Vanney and the players, the campaign has required a special kind of focus.

“A lot of what we’ve done here, and what we try to preach here is just control the controllables, and don’t get too drawn into the things you can’t,” Vanney told ESPN. “Roll with it, and make the best out of whatever the situation is.”

Stream FC Daily on ESPN+
– 2020 MLS Playoffs: Who’s in, schedule and more
– MLS on ESPN+: Stream LIVE games and replays (U.S. only)

Toronto has largely succeeded in spite of its odyssey. While there was disappointment at missing out on the Supporters’ Shield to the Philadelphia Union, TFC went 7-3-2 during its Hartford sojourn and finished with the second-best record in the league. But the challenges have still been immense. Simply being out of one’s home environment is difficult enough, but the time spent away from family and loved ones weighs heavy on the psyche, even as Vanney has given players the occasional trip back to Toronto — under quarantine — to reconnect with loved ones.

“It’s just very different, very challenging and emotionally exhausting,” Westberg said of his experience while based in Hartford.

Westberg has arguably had it tougher than most. The TFC goalkeeper is married with four children, including a baby girl who was born in June. For that reason, Westberg and his wife, Ania, made the decision at the end of September that it would be better for her and their kids to head back to his native France so they could be surrounded by family. Westberg called it “the least bad decision,” but there are difficulties nonetheless.

“I’m a very even person, and this year has challenged me a lot,” he said. “I’m still pretty even, but I keep a lot to myself and for sure there’s some difficult days, seeing your family [struggle] from your absence.”

The inability to be home has affected the players and staff in other ways. In Toronto, there are ways of disengaging from the game. Being with friends, loved ones or even in familiar surroundings can be the best medicine in terms of forgetting a bad game or training session. But in Hartford, at the team’s hotel, that escape is nearly impossible even as players try to distract themselves by reading or taking online classes.

“You don’t really unplug,” Westberg said. “You FaceTime family, or this or that, but it’s too short. You’re 100 percent focused on your soccer, and your whole day basically relies on being ready for whatever soccer activity that you have next, whether it’s practice or game. It’s good for your physique, it’s optimal for the way you eat and the way you [train]. But mentally, you’re not as fresh as your body.”

That isn’t to say there are only negatives to the separation. There is also an us-against-the-world mentality that Toronto has adopted, given that their players and personnel are experiencing the season in a way that is vastly different than most other teams. The team staff has done what it can to make their surroundings a home away from home, whether it’s personalizing the locker rooms at Rentschler Field or having hotel staff brand the surroundings in TFC colors. The hotel went so far as to bring in a barista who could consistently give the players their coffee fix. Supporters groups have even sent down banners in a bid to convey the fact that the players are remembered.

The care that TFC takes for players has extended to families back home, with the club supplying meals to loved ones three times a week.

On the logistical side, Liston made sure that one of the gyms used at MLS is Back was brought to TFC’s hotel in Hartford, and he remarked that the food at the hotel is “arguably the best we’ve ever had on the road.”

There have also been efforts to create new routines. Assistant coach Jason Bent, aka DJ Soops, has been in charge of the pregame music selection for the past 18 months — no easy feat for a squad that has a considerable international presence. In Hartford, Bent has set aside Thursday nights to spin music in one area of the hotel. He’ll even go live on Instagram or Twitch for those who prefer to relax in their rooms.

“[We] opened it to players and staff and basically anyone that’s part of our bubble to come relax, listen to music and just enjoy each other’s company,” Bent said. “I enjoy making people happy so if it’s helping everyone even in the slightest, I have no problem arranging the set and spinning.”

For Vanney, the pandemic and operating outside of the team’s home market has meant any number of challenges. He said the team has used three different training facilities in Hartford, with varying field conditions. He recognizes that the trips home are vital for the mental health of his players and staff, but any breaks also mean less time spent on the practice field. The compressed schedule, which at times involved games every three or four days, has had an impact as well. Even the best-laid plans in terms of squad rotation were impacted as minor injuries began popping up.

“We end up with a lot of guys in different positions because they need special kinds of treatment or care to help them get fit and back to health,” Vanney said. “So it ends up being a lot of different things kind of going on all at once, and that’s been the challenge of it.”

Recovery from matches has been complicated by the fact that TFC doesn’t have access to the same level of facilities that it does at home — hence Liston’s emergency trip to Lowe’s to fashion impromptu ice baths for the players. Then there are the different ways the players occupy themselves on the road as compared to home, especially amid the pandemic.

“There’s really no life outside of the hotel,” Liston said. “[At home], you may go walk the dog in the afternoon or go for a walk with your wife or friend or girlfriend or family and you’re out and about. The recommendation [here] is to kind of stay put. So you’ve got a really active population and pro athletes, who we’re asking them to be sedentary the rest of the time, kind of stay in the hotel from a COVID and safety standpoint. That’s not optimal for recovery either.”

There are also the creature comforts of home that are no longer available on the road, which can impact sleep.

“Sleep is the number one tool for recovery, and that’s definitely been a challenge,” Liston said. “We do well-being questionnaires and the scores on quality of sleep, and hours of sleep, just drop.”

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Tom Barlow and Brian White seal Toronto’s fate in a 2-1 win for New York Red Bulls. Watch MLS on ESPN+.

Another change has been same-day travel, which has drawn mixed reactions from the TFC players and staff. Vanney and Westberg are generally in favor, saying it reminds them of when they each played in France. Flying back the same night also means a training day isn’t lost. Liston has a different perspective in that he prefers arriving the day before, and then leaving the same day.

“I think [same-day travel] makes for a really long day,” he said. “And there’s definitely a negative impact on performance, taking three bus rides and a plane ride before your game. You’re getting home — it can be 12:30, but it could also be 1:30 in the morning, and that’s where you know our well-being scores and sleep hours and quality just disappear. When you have so many games in succession, you can’t make up the sleep.”

With the playoffs set to begin for TFC on Nov. 24, the end is in sight, even as it makes for a complex — and even conflicting — set of emotions.

“This is the tricky part. I miss them a lot,” Westberg said of his family. “But in a way I want to see them as [late] as possible in December, because obviously, there’s this idea that we want to do well in the playoffs and we want to keep going. TFC has a history of setting high standards and high expectations. It’s a heavy load to carry but also an exciting one.”

Win or lose, it’s a season they’ll never forget.

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Bettman: NHL is mulling temporary realignment

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The NHL is considering a temporary realignment of its teams for the 2020-21 season due to COVID-19 travel restrictions, according to commissioner Gary Bettman.

Bettman said Tuesday that restrictions on travel across the Canadian border, as well as “limitations in terms of quarantining when you go from certain states to other states” within the United States, could mean the NHL creates a more regionalized alignment for its upcoming season.

“As it relates to the travel issue, which is obviously the great unknown, we may have to temporarily realign to deal with geography, because having some of our teams travel from Florida to California may not make sense. It may be that we’re better off — particularly if we’re playing a reduced schedule, which we’re contemplating — keeping it geographically centric and more divisional-based; and realigning, again on a temporary basis, to deal with the travel issues,” Bettman said during a 2020 Paley International Council Summit panel with fellow commissioners Adam Silver of the NBA and Rob Manfred of MLB.

The NHL board of governors has a meeting scheduled for Thursday which will provide a progress report and possible recommendations for a season format, based on talks between the league and the NHL Players’ Association. The target date for starting next season remains Jan. 1.

Bettman said the league is considering a few scheduling options for the 2020-21 season. Something that’s off the table: playing the entire season in the kind of bubbles the NHL had in Toronto and Edmonton, Alberta, to complete last season. But Bettman said teams opening in their own arenas is a possibility, along with a modified bubble.

“We are exploring the possibility of playing in our own buildings without fans [or] fans where you can, which is going to be an arena-by-arena issue. But we’re also exploring the possibility of a hub. You’ll come in. You’ll play for 10 to 12 days. You’ll play a bunch of games without traveling. You’ll go back, go home for a week, be with your family. We’ll have our testing protocols and all the other things you need,” he said.

Bettman also indicated that the NHL is exploring “a hybrid, where some teams are in a bubble, some teams play at home and you move in and out.”

The NBA’s board of governors unanimously approved a deal with the players’ union that sets the stage for a season that will open on Dec. 22 and with a reduced schedule of 72 games. Silver said that the commissioners are in communication on COVID-19-related issues, especially the NBA and the NHL, since the two leagues’ teams share arenas and, in some cases, team owners.

Silver said he senses that the NBA will have fans in many of its buildings this season.

“We’re probably going to start one way, where we’re maybe a little bit more conservative than many of the jurisdictions allow,” he said. “What we’ve said to our teams is that we’ll continue to work with public health authorities. Arena issues are different than outdoor stadium issues. There will be certain standards for air filtration and air circulation. There may be a different standard for a suite than there will be for fans spaced in seats.”

Silver said there will be standardized protocols that are consistent from arena to arena, such as proximity between players and fans: “In certain cases, for seats near the floor, we’re going to be putting in testing programs, where fans will certify that they’ve been tested — some within 48 hours, some within day of game.” While Silver supported a continued expansion of the NBA postseason through its play-in tournament, Bettman said that he’s not in favor of expanded playoffs or “playing with the fundamentals of the game.” The NHL had 24 teams in its postseason last summer.

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The Battleground States Where We’ve Seen Some Movement In The Polls

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With apologies to The Raconteurs, the presidential race continues to be “steady as she goes,” with little sign of tightening despite a plethora of new polls. FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast gives Joe Biden an 89 in 100 shot at winning the election, while President Trump has just an 11 in 100 chance. This makes Biden the favorite, but still leaves open a narrow path to victory for Trump, for whom a reelection win would be surprising — but not utterly shocking.

At the same time, we also have fewer polls from live-caller surveys, which have historically been more accurate and have shown slightly better numbers for Biden, than polls that use other methodologies, such as polls conducted primarily online or through automated telephone calls. Nevertheless, while the overall picture has shifted only a little in recent days, a few battleground states have seen at least some movement in their polls, which has slightly altered the odds Biden or Trump wins in each of those places.

What election stories need to get more coverage | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

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