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Presidential Forecaster Predicts Joe Biden Win (With Plenty of Caveats)

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Former Vice President Joe Biden delivers a speech at the William Hicks Anderson Community Center, on July 28, 2020 in Wilmington, Delaware.
Former Vice President Joe Biden delivers a speech at the William Hicks Anderson Community Center, on July 28, 2020 in Wilmington, Delaware.
Photo: Mark Makela (Getty Images)

Allan Lichtman, a political forecaster and historian, has accurately predicted almost every presidential election of the past four decades, even confidently predicting that Donald Trump would win in 2016. Now Lichtman is making his prediction for 2020, including a win for presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden. But much like all predictions, it’s important to look at Lichtman’s caveats, which are only included for a few seconds at the end of a new video from the New York Times.

The video explores Lichtman’s history of predictions, including his “13 Keys” for judging who will win during any given election year. Lichtman goes through his “keys,” including everything from whether the incumbent’s party made gains during a midterm election (Trump did not) and whether there’s social unrest in the country leading up the election (there definitely is).

Some of Lichtman’s criteria seem extremely subjective, such as whether the incumbent is “charismatic,” something that Lichtman says Trump isn’t. Needless to say, Trump is very charismatic to a large portion of his voting base, much in the way that a cult leader is charismatic.

But arguably the most important part of Lichtman’s prediction that Biden will win in 2020 is the caveats he includes at the end of the video, which you can watch at the New York Times website and embedded below.

“There are forces at play outside the keys,” Lichtman warns at the end of his video after boldly claiming Biden will definitely win. “Voter suppression, Russian meddling…”

And there’s the rub.

Lichtman has correctly predicted the results of almost every election since 1984, aside from the 2000 election when Republican George W. Bush took power following a controversial Supreme Court decision. Bush’s Democratic opponent, Al Gore, won the popular vote, but Bush clinched a narrow win in Florida after a recount was halted in the state, putting Bush over the line to take the Electoral College.

Strangely, Lichtman claims that his incorrect prediction that Gore would win in 2000 shouldn’t count because someone winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college hadn’t happened in over a century.

“I wasn’t wrong. I correctly predicted that Al Gore would win the popular vote. When I first developed the system in 1981, you had to go all the way back to 1888 to find a divergence between the popular vote and the Electoral College vote,” Lichtman says in the new video as a bizarre rationalization.

And that gets down to the problem we face in 2020. Predicting a Biden win might be reasonable if you’re using the same criteria from what most Americans would consider normal times. But we don’t live in normal times. We live in extremely abnormal times, with a pandemic raging, people getting picked up by secret police, and a president who’s sabotaging the U.S. Postal Service during an unprecedented health crisis that makes voting by mail more crucial than ever. All of that is to say nothing of the fact that President Trump has said he won’t necessarily accept defeat if he actually loses in November.

Lichtman ends his video by encouraging people to vote and saying “As Abraham Lincoln said, the best way to predict the future is to choose it.” It’s a common internet meme, but Lincoln never said it. As the website Quote Investigator explains, the first use of this saying and its multiple variations probably originates in the 1960s. President Lincoln was assassinated a century earlier in 1865.

Predictions are hard, as any regular reader of Paleofuture knows. Every good prognosticator includes caveats about why their predictions might be wrong. And while plenty of people will be happy to see Lichtman predicting a win for Biden, this election cycle is far from over.

The devil is in the details. And in this case, the devil is Donald J. Trump.

Source : Gizmodo Read More

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Charge Your Phone Wirelessly With 50% off a Multifunctional LED Lamp

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Best Tech DealsBest Tech DealsThe best tech deals from around the web, updated daily.

White Wireless Charge Lamp | $18 | Amazon | Clip coupon + code ABC88699
Black Wireless Charger Lamp | $20 | Amazon | Promo code ABC88699

When you’re ready to turn in for the night, you don’t want to forget to charge your phone— especially if your mobile device doubles as your alarm clock.

With this wireless charger lamp, you can make this crucial step of your nightly routine even easier by just setting your phone on the wireless charging pad and… well, that’s all there is to it!

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Other functions include multiple lighting modes as well as a sleep timer option for auto shut-off of the light after 30 or 60 minutes.

This lamp can be yours in white for $18 if you clip the coupon on Amazon (it’s below the original $40 price) and add promo code ABC88699 at checkout.

You can snag the black version for $20 using the same code—no coupon though, sorry.

Don’t sleep on this deal! Who knows how long stock or the coupon code will last?

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Keep That Hotdish Hot With 65% Off a Luncia Casserole Carrier, Only $11 With Promo Code

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Best Home DealsBest Home DealsThe best home, kitchen, smart home, and automotive deals from around the web, updated daily.

Luncia Double-Decker Dish Carrier | $11 | Amazon | Promo code SDDU9S7F

It has been a long time since the days we could safely have a potluck or other gatherings, but we have a fantastic deal perfect for once those times return. These double-decker Luncia dish carriers can be had for 65% off when you add promo code SDDU9S7F at checkout and clip the coupon on the site (it’s just below the price). These holders fit 9″x 13″ sized baking dishes.

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That means you can insulate and keep two dishes of food warm for only $11 instead of $30. What’s more, your Luncia carrier will arrive by Christmas if you order today as a Prime member.

Just add promo code SDDU9S7F and clip the 5% off coupon to bring the price down to $11 for the blue or the grey option.

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Grab this offer while it’s still around!


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Conquer Your Pup’s Dander and Fur With $700 Off a Cobalt or Charcoal Bobsweep PetHair Plus Robot Vacuum

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Best Home DealsBest Home DealsThe best home, kitchen, smart home, and automotive deals from around the web, updated daily.

Bobsweep PetHair Plus Robot Vacuum & Mop (Cobalt) | $200 | Best Buy

Bobsweep PetHair Plus Robot Vacuum & Mop (Charcoal) | $200 | Best Buy

Allergies can be bad enough as the seasons change. Don’t let pet hair and dander add to that by vacuuming it up early and often. That chore is easier said than done— unless you have a robot vacuum to do the work for you. This lovely bright cobalt Bobsweep PetHair Plus robot vacuum and mop, only $200 today at Best Buy seems like an ideal option. That’s a whopping $700 off, by the way.

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You can get the same deal for the charcoal version of the robot vac, too. This model is not only specially made for picking up pet hair, it self docks and charges when it’s finished with the work.

It also comes with a mop attachment, so it can take care of those kitchen floors for you as well. Grab it while it’s still available for this fantastic price!

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