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MLB Playoffs Daily: Astros, Dodgers look to ride their momentum

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The heat is turning up in the 2020 MLB playoffs, as two teams that seemed to be on the ropes — the Astros and Dodgers — punched back Wednesday, making both championship series a little more interesting.

Here’s a breakdown of the games, some numbers to know, a hot take of the day and more as you prep for Thursday’s twin bill.

Key links: Power Rankings | Predictions | Schedule, bracket | Playoff Baseball Classic

What’s on tap

All times Eastern; all series best-of-seven played at neutral sites

American League Championship Series Game 5: No. 1 Tampa Bay Rays (TBD) vs. No. 6 Houston Astros (TBD), 5:07 p.m. in San Diego

The Rays have made the big plays, had a couple of big hits with runners on and took advantage of some key Jose Altuve errors, but it’s not like they’ve crushed the Astros across the board. Yes, the overall pitching advantage the rest of the way still weighs in the Rays’ favor, especially in the bullpen, but Randy Arozarena feels a bit like a one-man offense at times. Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay’s best hitter in the regular season, has struggled so much in the playoffs — he’s in a 1-for-32 slump — that Kevin Cash benched him in Game 4. The Rays need Lowe to start delivering.

If the Rays are to clinch the second World Series trip in franchise history, there are two hitters in particular they need to shut down. George Springer had the big two-run home run off Tyler Glasnow in Game 4 and has 12 home runs since the beginning of September (tied with Arozarena and Adam Duvall for most in the majors, including the playoffs). Altuve also homered, for the fifth time in six games, and has five multihit games in Houston’s playoff contests.

It’s probably Johnny Wholestaff day for the Rays, but the pen is in good shape. For the Astros, Cristian Javier‘s relief outing means their Game 5 starter is up in the air. Dusty Baker said it won’t be Framber Valdez on short rest, so it looks like a bullpen game, which means Baker will likely be using some relievers who haven’t pitched in high-leverage moments yet in this postseason. — David Schoenfield

National League Championship Series Game 4: No. 2 Atlanta Braves (Bryse Wilson) vs. No. 1 Los Angeles Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw), 8:08 p.m. in Arlington, Texas

Game 4 is often the most interesting chess match of a seven-game series since it usually matches up each team’s No. 4 starter, and when the series is 2-1 it becomes a huge swing game. Well, this is no ordinary Game 4.

For the Dodgers, Kershaw gets the call, but his back issues still raise a red flag on his potential effectiveness and how deep he can go. After the Game 3 blowout, however, the Dodgers’ bullpen is in good shape. Dustin May remains an interesting option — unless Dave Roberts is indeed saving him for Game 5, in which case Kenley Jansen might be needed at some point for some key outs. (He threw an easy 1-2-3, 10-pitch inning in Game 3.)

As for the Braves, they’re rolling the dice on Wilson. I’m a little surprised they didn’t opt for an opener to face Mookie Betts and the top of that lineup to decrease the likelihood of another early Dodgers lead, but given that the Braves shifted less than any team in the majors, they tend to play things old school. Thus, the inexperienced Wilson, who’ll be making his playoff debut. He won’t be expected to go deep in the game, but despite the blowout, the Braves’ bullpen is in good shape thanks to the four-inning, 92-pitch relief effort from Huascar Ynoa. Other than Shane Greene, none of the Braves’ top eight relievers pitched in Game 3. If this game is close, it shapes up as one of those contests in which the managerial decisions loom especially large. — Schoenfield


Updated odds for every series

Based on projections of ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle

Astros-Rays: Rays 93.0% to advance
Braves-Dodgers: Braves 55.7% to advance

Running World Series odds

NL: Dodgers 31.2%, Braves 28.4%
AL: Rays 38.3%, Astros 2.2%


Hot take of the day

In this space Wednesday: “I think the Dodgers come out swinging and knock around Kyle Wright.” Moral of the story: We will not let you down here at Hot Take! Trust us.

OK, maybe we didn’t anticipate the Dodgers knocking out Wright with an 11-run first inning, but that was some offensive outburst for the Dodgers in the first three innings. There’s a good chance it continues in Game 4 against Bryse Wilson, who hasn’t pitched since the end of September and allowed 28 baserunners in 15⅔ innings in the regular season.

So today’s Hot Take: The Dodgers come out swinging and knock around Bryse Wilson. Oh, and Clayton Kershaw is going to pitch five innings of one-run ball, and the Dodgers’ bullpen will finally deliver. Dodgers win 6-2 and even up the series. — Schoenfield


Stat of the day

Career statistics in the postseason are rather skewed with the added playoff games over the years, but Jose Altuve and George Springer matched some mighty impressive names Wednesday night. Both hit their 18th career playoff home run, tying Mickey Mantle and Reggie Jackson for fifth all time. Altuve and Springer homered in the same playoff game for the fourth time; the only pair of teammates to do that more often is Springer and Carlos Correa (7).


About last night …

Game 4 of the ALCS was a bit of a redemption story, as Altuve, plagued by throwing errors this postseason, made all the plays in the field and knocked in two runs at the plate as the Astros stayed alive with a 4-3 win over the Rays. Tampa Bay still leads the series 3-1. … When we say Game 3 of the NLCS was pretty much over before it started, we really mean it. The Dodgers had a 1-0 lead after two pitches, a 6-0 lead after 22 pitches and an 11-0 lead after setting a postseason record for runs in one inning. L.A. cruised to a 15-3 win, handing the Braves their first loss of the playoffs.


Social media post of the day


Best moment of the MLB playoffs to date

The stage was set for another Fernando Tatis Jr. moment, but Cody Bellinger snatched it away. Bellinger’s home run robbery, plucking what would have been a go-ahead shot by Tatis in the seventh inning of Game 2 of the National League Division Series, kept the Padres at bay — barely — and will take its place in Dodgers lore, particularly if L.A. wins it all.


The running MLB playoffs MVP

Randy Arozarena has gone from an unknown outfielder to this October’s breakout star. Going into the playoffs, you might have been asking, “Who is this guy?” But the Rays’ trade for him has been a huge factor in their postseason dominance. Since Sept. 1 across regular-season and postseason games, Arozarena’s 12 home runs are tied with George Springer and Adam Duvall for the most in baseball. And while his long balls have made a big impression, Arozarena also leads all hitters in the postseason with 39 total bases (and is leading in hits and extra-base hits). Also, he has been flashing some leather in the outfield and some sweet celebration dance moves on the field.

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Toronto FC hoping to make MLS Cup run having spent much of 2020 far from home

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On a recent Thursday in Hartford, Conn., Toronto FC goalkeeper Quentin Westberg pondered the dichotomy of wanting to reach MLS Cup on Dec. 12, but also desiring to see his family again. Meanwhile, Jim Liston, the team’s director of sports science, was planning a trip to Lowe’s to buy 15 garbage cans so players could have an ice bath after training. As for manager Greg Vanney, he was fretting about his team’s health and the lack of practice time their schedule was affording.

Such is the life of a team as it attempts to not only navigate its way through the COVID-19 pandemic, but has been forced to do it away from home.

Due to travel restrictions between the U.S. and Canada, TFC — like the league’s other two Canadian teams, Montreal Impact and Vancouver Whitecaps — set up a “home” base in the U.S. for the remainder of the season; Toronto were stationed in Hartford. (Vancouver Whitecaps took roost in Portland, ground-sharing with Timbers, while Montreal Impact split use of New York Red Bulls’ facilities in Harrison, N.J.) This was on top of nearly every team spending nearly a month inside a bubble back in July at the MLS is Back Tournament outside Orlando, Florida.

The Reds spent about seven weeks back in Toronto as they played a series of matches against Canadian teams. In mid-September, the remainder of the regular season — and the temporary move to Hartford — beckoned. The vagabond nature of the campaign is what led Liston to joke that he was willing to discuss “whatever five seasons” the team has been through so far. But for Vanney and the players, the campaign has required a special kind of focus.

“A lot of what we’ve done here, and what we try to preach here is just control the controllables, and don’t get too drawn into the things you can’t,” Vanney told ESPN. “Roll with it, and make the best out of whatever the situation is.”

Stream FC Daily on ESPN+
– 2020 MLS Playoffs: Who’s in, schedule and more
– MLS on ESPN+: Stream LIVE games and replays (U.S. only)

Toronto has largely succeeded in spite of its odyssey. While there was disappointment at missing out on the Supporters’ Shield to the Philadelphia Union, TFC went 7-3-2 during its Hartford sojourn and finished with the second-best record in the league. But the challenges have still been immense. Simply being out of one’s home environment is difficult enough, but the time spent away from family and loved ones weighs heavy on the psyche, even as Vanney has given players the occasional trip back to Toronto — under quarantine — to reconnect with loved ones.

“It’s just very different, very challenging and emotionally exhausting,” Westberg said of his experience while based in Hartford.

Westberg has arguably had it tougher than most. The TFC goalkeeper is married with four children, including a baby girl who was born in June. For that reason, Westberg and his wife, Ania, made the decision at the end of September that it would be better for her and their kids to head back to his native France so they could be surrounded by family. Westberg called it “the least bad decision,” but there are difficulties nonetheless.

“I’m a very even person, and this year has challenged me a lot,” he said. “I’m still pretty even, but I keep a lot to myself and for sure there’s some difficult days, seeing your family [struggle] from your absence.”

The inability to be home has affected the players and staff in other ways. In Toronto, there are ways of disengaging from the game. Being with friends, loved ones or even in familiar surroundings can be the best medicine in terms of forgetting a bad game or training session. But in Hartford, at the team’s hotel, that escape is nearly impossible even as players try to distract themselves by reading or taking online classes.

“You don’t really unplug,” Westberg said. “You FaceTime family, or this or that, but it’s too short. You’re 100 percent focused on your soccer, and your whole day basically relies on being ready for whatever soccer activity that you have next, whether it’s practice or game. It’s good for your physique, it’s optimal for the way you eat and the way you [train]. But mentally, you’re not as fresh as your body.”

That isn’t to say there are only negatives to the separation. There is also an us-against-the-world mentality that Toronto has adopted, given that their players and personnel are experiencing the season in a way that is vastly different than most other teams. The team staff has done what it can to make their surroundings a home away from home, whether it’s personalizing the locker rooms at Rentschler Field or having hotel staff brand the surroundings in TFC colors. The hotel went so far as to bring in a barista who could consistently give the players their coffee fix. Supporters groups have even sent down banners in a bid to convey the fact that the players are remembered.

The care that TFC takes for players has extended to families back home, with the club supplying meals to loved ones three times a week.

On the logistical side, Liston made sure that one of the gyms used at MLS is Back was brought to TFC’s hotel in Hartford, and he remarked that the food at the hotel is “arguably the best we’ve ever had on the road.”

There have also been efforts to create new routines. Assistant coach Jason Bent, aka DJ Soops, has been in charge of the pregame music selection for the past 18 months — no easy feat for a squad that has a considerable international presence. In Hartford, Bent has set aside Thursday nights to spin music in one area of the hotel. He’ll even go live on Instagram or Twitch for those who prefer to relax in their rooms.

“[We] opened it to players and staff and basically anyone that’s part of our bubble to come relax, listen to music and just enjoy each other’s company,” Bent said. “I enjoy making people happy so if it’s helping everyone even in the slightest, I have no problem arranging the set and spinning.”

For Vanney, the pandemic and operating outside of the team’s home market has meant any number of challenges. He said the team has used three different training facilities in Hartford, with varying field conditions. He recognizes that the trips home are vital for the mental health of his players and staff, but any breaks also mean less time spent on the practice field. The compressed schedule, which at times involved games every three or four days, has had an impact as well. Even the best-laid plans in terms of squad rotation were impacted as minor injuries began popping up.

“We end up with a lot of guys in different positions because they need special kinds of treatment or care to help them get fit and back to health,” Vanney said. “So it ends up being a lot of different things kind of going on all at once, and that’s been the challenge of it.”

Recovery from matches has been complicated by the fact that TFC doesn’t have access to the same level of facilities that it does at home — hence Liston’s emergency trip to Lowe’s to fashion impromptu ice baths for the players. Then there are the different ways the players occupy themselves on the road as compared to home, especially amid the pandemic.

“There’s really no life outside of the hotel,” Liston said. “[At home], you may go walk the dog in the afternoon or go for a walk with your wife or friend or girlfriend or family and you’re out and about. The recommendation [here] is to kind of stay put. So you’ve got a really active population and pro athletes, who we’re asking them to be sedentary the rest of the time, kind of stay in the hotel from a COVID and safety standpoint. That’s not optimal for recovery either.”

There are also the creature comforts of home that are no longer available on the road, which can impact sleep.

“Sleep is the number one tool for recovery, and that’s definitely been a challenge,” Liston said. “We do well-being questionnaires and the scores on quality of sleep, and hours of sleep, just drop.”

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Tom Barlow and Brian White seal Toronto’s fate in a 2-1 win for New York Red Bulls. Watch MLS on ESPN+.

Another change has been same-day travel, which has drawn mixed reactions from the TFC players and staff. Vanney and Westberg are generally in favor, saying it reminds them of when they each played in France. Flying back the same night also means a training day isn’t lost. Liston has a different perspective in that he prefers arriving the day before, and then leaving the same day.

“I think [same-day travel] makes for a really long day,” he said. “And there’s definitely a negative impact on performance, taking three bus rides and a plane ride before your game. You’re getting home — it can be 12:30, but it could also be 1:30 in the morning, and that’s where you know our well-being scores and sleep hours and quality just disappear. When you have so many games in succession, you can’t make up the sleep.”

With the playoffs set to begin for TFC on Nov. 24, the end is in sight, even as it makes for a complex — and even conflicting — set of emotions.

“This is the tricky part. I miss them a lot,” Westberg said of his family. “But in a way I want to see them as [late] as possible in December, because obviously, there’s this idea that we want to do well in the playoffs and we want to keep going. TFC has a history of setting high standards and high expectations. It’s a heavy load to carry but also an exciting one.”

Win or lose, it’s a season they’ll never forget.

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Bettman: NHL is mulling temporary realignment

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The NHL is considering a temporary realignment of its teams for the 2020-21 season due to COVID-19 travel restrictions, according to commissioner Gary Bettman.

Bettman said Tuesday that restrictions on travel across the Canadian border, as well as “limitations in terms of quarantining when you go from certain states to other states” within the United States, could mean the NHL creates a more regionalized alignment for its upcoming season.

“As it relates to the travel issue, which is obviously the great unknown, we may have to temporarily realign to deal with geography, because having some of our teams travel from Florida to California may not make sense. It may be that we’re better off — particularly if we’re playing a reduced schedule, which we’re contemplating — keeping it geographically centric and more divisional-based; and realigning, again on a temporary basis, to deal with the travel issues,” Bettman said during a 2020 Paley International Council Summit panel with fellow commissioners Adam Silver of the NBA and Rob Manfred of MLB.

The NHL board of governors has a meeting scheduled for Thursday which will provide a progress report and possible recommendations for a season format, based on talks between the league and the NHL Players’ Association. The target date for starting next season remains Jan. 1.

Bettman said the league is considering a few scheduling options for the 2020-21 season. Something that’s off the table: playing the entire season in the kind of bubbles the NHL had in Toronto and Edmonton, Alberta, to complete last season. But Bettman said teams opening in their own arenas is a possibility, along with a modified bubble.

“We are exploring the possibility of playing in our own buildings without fans [or] fans where you can, which is going to be an arena-by-arena issue. But we’re also exploring the possibility of a hub. You’ll come in. You’ll play for 10 to 12 days. You’ll play a bunch of games without traveling. You’ll go back, go home for a week, be with your family. We’ll have our testing protocols and all the other things you need,” he said.

Bettman also indicated that the NHL is exploring “a hybrid, where some teams are in a bubble, some teams play at home and you move in and out.”

The NBA’s board of governors unanimously approved a deal with the players’ union that sets the stage for a season that will open on Dec. 22 and with a reduced schedule of 72 games. Silver said that the commissioners are in communication on COVID-19-related issues, especially the NBA and the NHL, since the two leagues’ teams share arenas and, in some cases, team owners.

Silver said he senses that the NBA will have fans in many of its buildings this season.

“We’re probably going to start one way, where we’re maybe a little bit more conservative than many of the jurisdictions allow,” he said. “What we’ve said to our teams is that we’ll continue to work with public health authorities. Arena issues are different than outdoor stadium issues. There will be certain standards for air filtration and air circulation. There may be a different standard for a suite than there will be for fans spaced in seats.”

Silver said there will be standardized protocols that are consistent from arena to arena, such as proximity between players and fans: “In certain cases, for seats near the floor, we’re going to be putting in testing programs, where fans will certify that they’ve been tested — some within 48 hours, some within day of game.” While Silver supported a continued expansion of the NBA postseason through its play-in tournament, Bettman said that he’s not in favor of expanded playoffs or “playing with the fundamentals of the game.” The NHL had 24 teams in its postseason last summer.

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The Battleground States Where We’ve Seen Some Movement In The Polls

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With apologies to The Raconteurs, the presidential race continues to be “steady as she goes,” with little sign of tightening despite a plethora of new polls. FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast gives Joe Biden an 89 in 100 shot at winning the election, while President Trump has just an 11 in 100 chance. This makes Biden the favorite, but still leaves open a narrow path to victory for Trump, for whom a reelection win would be surprising — but not utterly shocking.

At the same time, we also have fewer polls from live-caller surveys, which have historically been more accurate and have shown slightly better numbers for Biden, than polls that use other methodologies, such as polls conducted primarily online or through automated telephone calls. Nevertheless, while the overall picture has shifted only a little in recent days, a few battleground states have seen at least some movement in their polls, which has slightly altered the odds Biden or Trump wins in each of those places.

What election stories need to get more coverage | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

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