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In Europe, Hopes for an Economic Recovery Are Fading: Live Updates

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A shopping mall in Barcelona on Wednesday. As the virus has surged again in Europe, the summer’s economic recovery has lost strength.
Credit…Albert Gea/Reuters

What hopes remained that Europe was recovering from the economic catastrophe delivered by the pandemic have all but disappeared as the lethal virus has resumed spreading rapidly.

France, Europe’s second-largest economy, this week amplified the concern as the government downgraded its forecast pace of expansion for the last three months of the year from an already minimal 1 percent to zero. Overall, the statistics agency predicts the economy will contract by 9 percent this year.

The diminished expectations are a direct outgrowth of alarm over the revival of the virus. France reported nearly 19,000 new cases on Wednesday — a one-day record, and nearly double the number seen the day before. The surge prompted President Emmanuel Macron to announce new restrictions, including a two-month shutdown of cafes and bars in Paris and surrounding areas.

In Spain, the central bank governor this week warned that the accelerating spread of the virus could force the government to impose restrictions that would produce an economic contraction of as much as 12.6 percent this year.

The European Central Bank’s chief economist on Tuesday cautioned that the 19 countries that share the euro currency may not recover from the disaster until 2022, with those that are dependent on tourism especially vulnerable.

Summer increasingly feels like a distant memory.

In August, with infection rates down, lockdowns lifted, and many Europeans indulging in the sacred ritual of the summer holiday, signs of revival were abundant. Many European economies expanded dramatically as people returned to shops, restaurants and vacation destinations.

Hopes had also been buoyed by a landmark agreement forged by the European Union to raise a $750 billion ($883 billion) euro relief fund through the sale of bonds backed collectively by all members. That move transcended years of resistance from debt-averse northern European countries.

But most economists assumed that better times would last only so long as the virus could be contained.

“Consumer activity slowed at the end of September,” said Moritz Degler, a senior economist at Oxford Economics in London, in a recent report. “With the health situation unlikely to improve in the near term, we expect the recovery to slow again over the next few weeks.”

Fall has also brought a realization that complex hurdles remain before the European Union’s relief fund can be administered, limiting prospects in the worst-hit countries like Spain and Italy.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Wednesday announced a stimulus spending plan worth 72 billion euros ($85 billion), with four-fifths of the money slated to come from the European fund.

Spain may have to wait for that money. The fund is supposed to be operational by January, yet almost certainly will confront delays as European Union members debate conditions on its distribution — especially rules aimed at forcing Hungary and Poland to abide by the democratic norms of the bloc.

The continent’s prospects for recovery are further restrained by rules that limit debts by members of the European Union and curb spending. Those strictures have been suspended, but they will return eventually, limiting growth prospects.

Italy is counting on receiving 209 billion euros ($246 billion) from the European relief fund, but the government is also pledging to bring down its public debt, which exceeded 134 percent of annual economic output at the end of last year. Such austerity, just as the pandemic increases costs for medical care, will almost certainly plunge Italy into a longer and deeper recession.

Some corporate executives have seen their wealth soar this year, thanks to stock awards that have gained in value as the stock market rebounded from its plunge at the start of the coronavirus pandemic.

  • Edward W. Stack, the chief executive of Dick’s Sporting Goods, and William Lynch, president of Peloton, for example, are each sitting on paper gains of over $60 million on stock-based awards they mostly received in the first three months of the year, according to an analysis by Institutional Shareholder Services.

  • And Stéphane Bancel, the chief executive of Moderna, a drug maker developing a coronavirus vaccine, received options in February that have appreciated by nearly $30 million.

  • Some executives at companies that have been hit hard by the pandemic have still done well. In March, William J. Hornbuckle, chief executive of MGM Resorts International, gave up the remainder of his 2020 salary in exchange for restricted stock units worth $700,000, the amount of his forgone salary. After MGM stock recovered somewhat from the lows it plumbed in March, that grant is worth $1.3 million on paper — and all his 2020 awards have appreciated by a combined $4 million.

  • Not all executives have gains on their 2020 grants, because many companies have struggled in the pandemic. ISS found that 1,675 “named executive officers,” or the executives who appear in proxies, had gains while 1,388 had losses, as of Wednesday’s closing stock prices. The average appreciation was nearly $1.5 million and the average loss $827,000.

One reason stock awards have appreciated so much is that some of the grants were made when the stock market was close to its lowest point for the year. Of course, many executives are also sitting on gains on stock they got in earlier years.

Pelosi rules out airlines-only aid plan as President Trump claims stimulus talks are back on.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California on Thursday said she would not agree to stand-alone aid package for airlines unless the Trump administration committed to a broader pandemic relief plan to help struggling Americans, declaring that “there is no stand-alone bill without a bigger bill.”

Her comments cast doubt on the prospects for a compromise just hours after President Trump had given an upbeat assessment, saying in an interview that he had reconsidered his decision to pull the plug on bipartisan negotiations on a stimulus plan until after the election.

“I shut down talks two days ago because they weren’t working out,” Mr. Trump said during a wide-ranging interview on Fox Business. “Now they’re starting to work out.”

The U.S. budget deficit topped a record $3 trillion for the 2020 fiscal year.

The federal budget deficit was $3.1 trillion for the 2020 fiscal year, the Congressional Budget Office estimated on Thursday. The deficit is a record for the United States in terms of total dollars and is a direct result of the federal response to the coronavirus pandemic.

Federal spending from April through the end of September was $4.2 trillion, nearly double the same period in 2019, the budget office reported. Individual and corporate income tax receipts fell by $191 billion, or about 17 percent, in April through September, compared with the year before.

Fed officials warned of slower growth without more stimulus, minutes show.

Federal Reserve officials were counting on Congress and the White House to pass additional aid for households and businesses hit by the pandemic when they released their latest economic forecasts, minutes from their Sept. 15-16 meeting showed. Many “noted that their economic outlook assumed additional fiscal support and that if future fiscal support was significantly smaller or arrived significantly later than they expected, the pace of the recovery could be slower than anticipated,” according to notes from the meeting.

More than 100 million are at risk of poverty, the World Bank says.

The World Bank warned on Wednesday that the coronavirus pandemic could push more than 100 million people into extreme poverty this year, elevating the global poverty rate for the first time in more than two decades. In a new report, the bank said that 88 million to 115 million people will be living on less than $1.90 a day, lifting the poverty rate — which had been projected to decline this year before the pandemic hit — as high as 9.4 percent.

Powell warns of prolonged economic pain without more aid.

The Federal Reserve chair, Jerome H. Powell, delivered a message to his fellow policymakers on Tuesday: Faced with a once-in-a-century pandemic that has inflicted economic pain on millions of households, go big.

“Too little support would lead to a weak recovery, creating unnecessary hardship for households and businesses,” Mr. Powell said in remarks prepared for virtual delivery before the National Association for Business Economics.

Nearly 16,000 cases in the U.K. weren’t counted because of a spreadsheet glitch.

Nearly 16,000 positive coronavirus cases recently went unrecorded in England’s tracking system, officials said on Monday. The glitch led to an undercount of the country’s tally and a delay in tracing infected people’s contacts, leaving tens of thousands of people in the dark about their potential exposure.

The culprit was a spreadsheet snafu, explains the DealBook newsletter. Specifically, the system relied on files formatted for an older version of Microsoft Excel, which can only handle a certain number of cells. When key files got too big, thousands of entries were skipped. To fix the problem, large files are now split before feeding them into the system — in other words, more spreadsheets.

The owner of Regal Cinemas is closing its U.S. theaters, with 40,000 jobs at stake.

The plight of the entertainment industry deepened on Monday as the British company Cineworld, which owns Regal Cinemas in the United States, said it would temporarily close all 663 of its movie theaters in the United States and Britain. The move was expected to affect 40,000 employees in the United States and 5,000 in Britain.

The company said it could not entice viewers back without a pipeline of new films. The news came after Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer announced on Friday it would push back the release date of the latest James Bond film, “No Time to Die,” to April from this fall — the second time its release date has been delayed because of the pandemic.

Target said it was using this time as an opportunity to reimagine the role of its office in a post-pandemic era.
Credit…Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press

Target and Ford Motor on Thursday said they would allow employees to continue to work from home through June 2021, as coronavirus cases continue to climb in the United States and companies struggle to figure out how to arrange offices in a way that keeps workers socially distanced and safe.

Target’s decision, announced in a letter to staff, applies just to employees at its headquarters, in Minneapolis. The company said that a small number of employees who rely on the headquarter facilities would continue to work on-site. The retailer also said it was using this time as an opportunity to reimagine the role of its office in a post-pandemic era.

“As we look to the future, our headquarters environment will include a hybrid model of remote and on-site work,” Target wrote in the letter. “This will allow for the flexibility many of you have come to value, while also providing opportunity for the in-person connection and collaboration that’s central to our team and culture.”

Ford also said its decision would apply to its roughly 32,000 employees in North America who are already working remotely.

The announcements by Ford and Target come after several other companies, including Google, Uber and Slack, have decided that employees need not return to the office until at least next summer.

Some companies have tried bringing employees back to the office, but not always successfully. Last month, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan had to send some workers back home after employees tested positive for the virus.

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How Brands Can Go From Performative Allyship to Actual Allies

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October 21, 2020 7 min read

Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

In these times of divisive politics, social unrest, and massive protesting, brands are taking note and including more diversity in their messaging. Many businesses are putting out social messages that are intended to show allyship, but if we were to look deeper, we’d find that many of these brands don’t have the internal organization or actions to align with their messaging.

This is called Performative Allyship. Essentially, performative allyship is when you “talk the talk” but don’t “walk the walk.”

Brands and businesses know the power of marketing and intentionally creating positive social perceptions. But brands should be careful when pushing out these messages. They can create a false perception that weakens a ’s trust and respect amongst their clients.

Of course, there is power in sharing diversity messaging. I leverage that power in my own business messaging. But I think there’s an opportunity for brands that want to jump on the bandwagon to jump mindfully. Here’s how you can be more intentional about your diversity messaging to avoid the pitfalls of performative allyship. 

What is performative allyship anyway?  

After May 25th, the unfortunate and iconic day when George Floyd was killed, it seemed like everyone felt a sense of urgency to do something and say something to be on the right side of justice.

Brands and organizations started to catch on to the social justice conversations happening in the business world and society as a whole. People all over the states started seeing changes. Buildings were renamed, statues came down, murals went up, and of course, brands started changing their messaging and marketing.

Related: 5 Ways Entrepreneurs of Color Can Determine an Ally’s Authenticity

Don’t get me wrong — nothing in and of itself is bad about that. But the conversation I want to start awakening people to is about the pros, cons, and considerations you should be having when messaging in support of DEI and allyship. You and your business should avoid “performing” in the public space and not doing the work internally.

In DEI, there is no such thing as a perfect response or piece of writing to address racism. It’s more a reflection of what you’ve done prior to that and more importantly, what you’re going to do after the fact.

It’s important to realize that when organizations or businesses make a public statement, whether internal or external, they are in essence inviting people to hold them accountable. The whole world can now scrutinize the actions of their past, how their business operates internally, the culture they’ve created, and how they will continue to act in the public eye.

This year, may have felt like they needed to act with a knee jerk reaction so they would be perceived as being on the right side. However, many people are seeing through brands who do not “walk the walk”. People are seeing the inauthenticity of certain brands as being performative in nature. Leaders must realize there are implications and consequences that come with performative allyship. 

What are the issues for my business if I engage in performative allyship?

Performative allyship can weaken trust and in your business. Not only can it be hurtful for communities of color, it can also put the messaging into a context that can feel like your business is tossing some money at the diversity issues and hoping they will go away.

Related: The Supreme Court’s Ruling on LGBTQ+ Workplace Protections …

When people see performative allyship, they feel like you might be avoiding the hard and important work. This performative work can feel good on the surface and give us a glimpse of hope, because there’s some level of solidarity. But at the end of the day, those of us who care about DEI work are left wondering where the deep work is and what practical steps are present to help us dismantle systemic racism.

As entrepreneurs who care about DEI, we don’t want this work to be window dressing or simply checking a box. We don’t want it to be a costume for the actual problems at hand. We want to see society emerge stronger and not repeat the injustices of the past. We want organizations to align their words with their actions. We want our businesses to act and communicate with integrity and credibility.

Brands are making a fatal mistake with performative allyship. It’s about intent versus impact. Just because you didn’t intend for something to land a certain way shouldn’t mean others have to suffer the consequences. Insensitive DEI messaging can result in negative word of mouth, poor response from the market, or people boycotting your business.

What can you do to be an actual ally?

Here are some tips for brands to become actual allies and avoid performative allyship.

  • Count the cost. Before you feel it appropriate to write a statement, make a verbal pledge, or change your messaging, you need to “count the cost” and know what it means to deliver upon it. In other words, dig into the work or consult with a DEI specialist to see what being aligned with diversity, equity, and inclusion work will cost you, your team, and your business. Analyze your resources so you can live up to the DEI messaging you want to enact.
  • Do an internal evaluation. It’s particularly important to evaluate your DEI efforts through the lens of the leadership team. You must think through what will help your business have a strong, solid foundation upon which success can occur around DEI. Ask yourself and your team questions such as:
    • Are you actually ready for DEI work?
    • Do you have the infrastructure to support it?
    • Do you have the capital to support it?
    • Do you have processes in place to drive sustainable change?
    • Are you doing an assessment to gather important data to inform the path forward?
  • Have a readiness conversation and conduct an assessment. To build upon the last point, I encourage brands and leaders to ask questions around the Meyer’s DEI Spectrum Tool 12 Dimensions of DEI work. These 12 dimensions include assessing policies, leadership, infrastructure, training, and more. This assessment includes seeing if you’ve done the hard work of having those conversations to see why you are doing this work, analyzing the business case for it, and ensuring there is alignment for vision across leadership. 
  • Create systems for equity and justice. If you want to empower Brown and Black people, ask yourself, do you have systems in place for that? Even if your proposed systems are small in stature, make sure you can deliver on them—if not, then don’t market it. After analyzing and assessing, you can consult with DEI professionals to create these systems and implement these ideals for external messaging.
  • Avoid being woke-washed. People want to support brands they feel really are “woke” and not “woke washed”. They want to support brands who are actually aligned with their values and are doing the hard work. Ben & Jerry’s is a great example of a brand that is woke and working towards justice in the world. They were demonstrating allyship well before the death of George Floyd and continued to support DEI efforts afterward. They earned the trust of their audience and avoided the pitfalls of being superifically woke-washed. In other words, they talked the talk and walked the walk.

When you are aligned, prepared, and honest about the messaging you wish to share, you will be taking critical steps towards actual allyship.

As we move forward into the world and more racial and social equity issues show up (because they will), make sure to dig deep and truly do the work to avoid any performative allyship.

Make sure you can back your messaging up with the systems, culture, and infrastructure change in your organization that creates actual impact. Make sure you are actually doing the allyship work to help you and your business contribute to a more just and equitable world.

Related: Be Intentional About Diversity

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Apollo Board Will Review Leon Black’s Ties to Jeffrey Epstein

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The billionaire Leon Black’s decades-long relationship with the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein will be reviewed by a group of board members at the private equity firm he leads, Apollo Global Management.

A spokeswoman for Apollo said Tuesday night that Mr. Black requested the review by members of the firm’s conflicts committee during a regularly scheduled board meeting.

Mr. Black asked for the review a little more than a week after The New York Times reported that he had wired at least $50 million in fees and donations to entities affiliated with Mr. Epstein in the U.S. Virgin Islands from 2012 to 2017.

Shares of Apollo have fallen more than 13 percent since the report was published. The firm reports quarterly earnings on Oct. 29.

In asking for the review, Mr. Black, an Apollo co-founder and its chief executive, said an independent review was in “the best interests” of Apollo, its employees, shareholders and limited partners. The board committee retained the law firm Dechert LLP to conduct the review.

Mr. Black and Apollo have repeatedly said that Mr. Epstein did no work for the firm, which counts some of the biggest public pensions in the world among its investors.

In a letter to investors after the Times report, Mr. Black said he had not been accused of any wrongdoing. He said he had paid millions in fees to Mr. Epstein for advice, mainly on estate planning.

Mr. Epstein died in custody in August 2019 after federal prosecutors in Manhattan had accused him of engaging in sex trafficking with underage girls and young women. His death was ruled a suicide.

Mr. Black’s letter said he regretted his dealings with Mr. Epstein but had been unaware of the activities that led to the most recent criminal charges against him.

Mr. Epstein pleaded guilty to a charge of soliciting prostitution from an underage girl in Florida in 2008, a case that required him to register as a sex offender. Mr. Black’s letter offered few details about the nature of the work that Mr. Epstein had provided for him in the years that followed. Mr. Epstein, a college dropout who styled himself a financial guru to the very wealthy, had no particular expertise in tax and estate planning.

Mr. Black is worth about $9 billion and is one of the wealthiest executives on Wall Street. He has an art collection estimated to be worth $1 billion and serves as chairman of the board of the Museum of Modern Art.

Mr. Black asked for the review because he wants an independent analysis to support his statement that he did nothing wrong and all the fees paid were legitimate, according to a person briefed on the matter who was not authorized to speak publicly.

The board’s review was first reported by The Wall Street Journal.

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Disneyland, Other California Theme Parks, Get Rules for Reopening

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California health officials issued long-awaited guidance for reopening theme parks in the state on Tuesday, setting targets for when attractions like Disneyland Resort, in Anaheim, and Universal Studios Hollywood, in Los Angeles, can open their doors. For the big parks, it could be a long road: their counties must reach the least-restrictive “yellow” tier of the state’s four-tier Covid-19 economic-reopening plan.

In terms of coronavirus cases, Orange County, home to Disneyland, is currently in the “red,” or second, tier and Los Angeles County, Universal Studios’ location, is currently in the most restrictive “purple” tier. It could be months before either county meets the guidelines for the “yellow” tier, which requires there be fewer than one case a day per 100,000 residents and a testing positivity rate of less than 2 percent. The parks have been closed since March.

The secretary of California’s Health and Human Services Agency, Dr. Mark Ghaly, issued the guidelines in a video conference on Tuesday and said that he believes that the tier guidelines can be reached. He said that San Francisco County had already met them.

“There’s lots of work we can do together — both state, local, business leaders, community leaders, individuals — to do what we can to make sure that we reduce transmission throughout our county and there is a path forward there,” Dr. Ghaly said. “We do not know when, but we do know how, and I think we’ll continue to put in the hard work to get us there one county at a time.”

However, Disneyland Resort’s president, Ken Potrock, said in a statement that the guidelines are “arbitrary” and “unworkable.”

“We have proven that we can responsibly reopen, with science-based health and safety protocols strictly enforced at our theme park properties around the world,” Mr. Potrock said. “Nevertheless, the State of California continues to ignore this fact, instead mandating arbitrary guidelines that it knows are unworkable and that hold us to a standard vastly different from other reopened businesses and state-operated facilities.”

When parks do reopen, they will have to implement a reservation system allowing guests to book visits ahead of time. They will also have to screen guests for symptoms and mandate masks everywhere inside the park, except when people are eating and drinking. Larger parks, like Disneyworld and Universal Studios Hollywood, will have to limit capacity to 25 percent.

Smaller parks in California can reopen when they reach the third or “orange” tier. They will be allowed to have up to 25 percent capacity or 500 guests, depending on which number is less, and only people from the park’s home county will be allowed to visit.

Disney World, the company’s Orlando, Fla., park, reopened in July with strict social distancing and capacity requirements and there have been no major outbreaks of the coronavirus associated with the park. But low attendance has led the company to start layoffs there. The pandemic has cut off many of Disney’s lines of business, including films, theater productions and cruises. Disneyland generated an estimated $3.8 billion in revenue last year, according to Michael Nathanson, a media analyst.

On Monday, a coalition of unions representing thousands of workers at Disneyland told California Gov. Gavin Newsom that it is generally satisfied with the health measures laid out by the company for operating safely.

Follow New York Times Travel on Instagram, Twitter and Facebook. And sign up for our weekly Travel Dispatch newsletter to receive expert tips on traveling smarter and inspiration for your next vacation.

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